Analyzing the Impact of Regional Trade Agreements on Intra-African Trade
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Abstract
This study investigated the impact of Regional Trade Agreements (RTAs) on intra-African trade by employing an augmented gravity model. Using Poisson Pseudo-Maximum Likelihood (PPML) estimation on panel data covering 36 African countries from 2008 to 2023, the analysis revealed that RTAs significantly enhance trade flows within the continent. In addition, economic size, geographical contiguity, and a shared official language were found to exert a positive and statistically significant influence on bilateral trade. Conversely, geographical distance had a negative but statistically insignificant effect in the presence of RTAs, suggesting that policy-driven integration may mitigate traditional spatial constraints. Based on these findings, the study recommends reinforcing the implementation of the African Continental Free Trade Area (AfCFTA) through regulatory harmonization and the systematic elimination of non-tariff barriers in order to unlock its full trade potential and foster deeper regional integration.
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