Population Growth, Cereal Yield, Land Availability and Real GDP per Capita in Five Agrarian Economies
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Abstract
This study examines within-country associations among population growth, cereal yield, arable land per person, agricultural land share, and real GDP per capita in Afghanistan, Ethiopia, Niger, Tanzania, and Malawi. Descriptive comparisons use the available World Bank World Development Indicators series, while the principal fixed-effects analysis covers a balanced five-country panel for 2002–2022 (105 country-year observations). The principal two-way fixed-effects model finds no statistically detectable population-growth association with log real GDP per capita (β = 0.0118, 95% CI [−0.0661, 0.0898], p = .766). Log cereal yield is positively associated with GDP per capita in the principal model (β = 0.2864, 95% CI [0.1225, 0.4503], p = .0006), but this association is not statistically significant when country-specific linear trends are included (β = 0.0634, p = .133). The arable-land-per-person coefficient is positive in the principal model (β = 0.9063) but reverses sign under country-specific trends (β = −0.7186, p = .039). Excluding Afghanistan changes the population-growth estimate to −0.1617 (p = .013), indicating substantial country sensitivity. The interaction between population growth and cereal yield is imprecise and statistically insignificant (β = 0.1234, 95% CI [−0.1610, 0.4077], p = .395). These observational estimates are exploratory associations, not causal effects. The descriptive coexistence of declining arable land per person and rising cereal yields in four countries is not evidence that population pressure caused intensification; Niger’s yield series differs. The study therefore documents heterogeneous patterns and specification-sensitive associations rather than adjudicating between Malthusian and Boserupian mechanisms.
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