Geopolitical Risk and Institutional Quality on Crop Production in Nigeria
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Abstract
This study examines the impact of geopolitical risk and institutional quality on agricultural output in Nigeria using the Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) framework developed by Pesaran, Shin, and Smith. Empirical results indicate a long-run relationship among geopolitical risk, institutional quality, and agricultural output. Institutional quality exerts a significant positive influence on crop production over the long term, highlighting the importance of stable governance, rule of law, and effective institutions in promoting agricultural productivity. In contrast, geopolitical risk does not have a statistically significant effect on agricultural output, suggesting that domestic institutional strength may buffer the agricultural sector from external shocks. Access to credit also plays a vital role in supporting agricultural growth, reinforcing the need for robust financial systems that enhance farmers’ resilience and productivity.
Overall, the findings underscore that strong institutions are fundamental to sustaining agricultural output and ensuring food security, while weak governance, corruption, and political instability hinder progress.
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